According to Omkar Godbole, BTC is unlikely to enter a bear market just because it did in 2017 and 2022, as those drawdowns were driven by specific blowups such as Terra, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX in 2022, plus the 2018 ICO bubble and China/South Korea crackdowns, rather than a self-fulfilling 4-year cycle; source: Omkar Godbole (@godbole17) on X, Oct 12, 2025. Godbole adds that current crypto sentiment is the mirror opposite of post-FTX capitulation, with markets leaning on a pro-crypto Trump White House, ETFs, DATs, stablecoin regulation, and broader adoption, creating conditions where negative surprises can emerge; source: Omkar Godbole (@godbole17) on X, Oct 12, 2025. He references Bitwise’s Hunter Horsley at Singapore Token 2049 to frame the key trader question of what the comparable exogenous shock might be this cycle, underscoring the need for BTC risk management over halving-cycle anchoring; source: Omkar Godbole (@godbole17) on X, Oct 12, 2025. For trading, Godbole’s view implies fading complacency, stress-testing positions, and preparing hedges against left-tail events rather than assuming an uninterrupted uptrend; source: Omkar Godbole (@godbole17) on X, Oct 12, 2025.